It’s not in your head. You’re definitely paying more for your morning cup of coffee. And your afternoon cup. And your evening cup.
By January, coffee prices had increased 33 percent from the same point the previous year, according to the Consumer Price Index.
This jump, the largest since the 1980s, was not unexpected. Some countries, including Vietnam, Brazil, and Colombia, have been hit especially hard by President Trump’s trade reforms (these three nations account for more than 60 percent of the U.S. coffee supply), not to mention a blanket 10 percent tariff that made importing green coffee beans more expensive.
Even before the steep tariffs took effect, a global coffee supply shortage, caused partly by droughts in Vietnam and Brazil, was driving up the cost of beans.
Some coffee companies raised prices earlier to offset the higher cost of the beans. Many then tried to absorb the higher costs of the tariffs, but they appeared to run out of room to keep prices low for customers last summer. In August alone, the price of coffee increased 3.6 percent.
A new paradigm may be forming
While the U.S Supreme Court struck down many of President trump’s tariffs in February, he quickly imposed a new, across-the-board 10 percent tax on many imports, then announced days later it would be raised to 15 percent. This new rate, which has not yet been formalized, would be higher than the duties that previously applied to many countries’ exports to the U.S.
Removing tariffs from the equation for just a moment, we appear to be entering a new paradigm where coffee production is concerned. In recent years, the impact of climate change has become undeniable.
In addition to the extreme weather cited above, rising temperatures could cut the suitable coffee-growing land around the world by 50 percent by 2050. Higher temperatures also increase the threat of pests and fungi.
The overall effect is an increasingly smaller yield at a time when, arguably, coffee has never been more popular. Which is to say that the new, higher price of your morning coffee may become the new normal.
What to expect in the months ahead
It’s hard to predict when and how tariffs will take hold again, but experts say it appears unlikely we’ll see the short-term surges in price like the ones that occurred over the last year. Daily and monthly fluctuations will be subtler, they say, but it’s difficult to envision a future in which the price of coffee doesn’t continue to trend upward.
The silver lining is that coffee growers, who have long been undervalued, are finally being paid more. And the hope is that this will enable them and their communities to invest in more sustainable practices, better infrastructure, and long-term resilience.
Which is all the more reason to seek out roasters and coffee shops that source responsibly and deliver a coffee experience that reflects your values.